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Estimate of atmospheric predictability and development of prediction model using ensemble forecast assimilation in nonlinear dynamical system
http://hdl.handle.net/2241/6842
http://hdl.handle.net/2241/6842aebb29cd-e097-462a-b0b1-26c9146528be
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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B2021.pdf (164.1 kB)
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1.pdf (12.2 MB)
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Item type | Thesis or Dissertation(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2007-07-25 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | Estimate of atmospheric predictability and development of prediction model using ensemble forecast assimilation in nonlinear dynamical system | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | jpn | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06 | |||||
タイプ | doctoral thesis | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | open access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||
著者 |
野原, 大輔
× 野原, 大輔 |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | In this study, a limit of predictability for the atmosphere is estimated based on analog weather maps in the historical data, and a new type of ensemble forecast assimilation technique is developed in order to improve the forecast skill in the nonlinear dynamical system. The limit of the predictability (denoted as P) is defined as the time taken for the initial difference (E0) of the analog pair to reach the climate noise level which is defined by one standard deviation from the long term mean of the fluctuation in the observed atmosphere. Although a total of 185,547,600 pairs of the weather maps are searched, there are no good analog pairs to investigate the difference growth rate for a sufficiently small E0 of the analog pairs. For this reason, ... | |||||
言語 | en | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | Includes bibliographical references | |||||
言語 | en | |||||
書誌情報 |
発行日 2004 |
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取得学位 | ||||||
学位名 | 博士(理学) | |||||
取得学位 | ||||||
学位名 | Doctor of Philosophy in Science | |||||
学位授与大学 | ||||||
学位授与機関識別子Scheme | kakenhi | |||||
学位授与機関識別子 | 12102 | |||||
言語 | ja | |||||
学位授与機関名 | 筑波大学 | |||||
言語 | en | |||||
学位授与機関名 | University of Tsukuba | |||||
学位授与年度 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 2003 | |||||
学位授与年月日 | ||||||
学位授与年月日 | 2004-03-25 | |||||
報告番号 | ||||||
学位授与番号 | 乙第2021号 |