@phdthesis{oai:tsukuba.repo.nii.ac.jp:00008370, author = {野原, 大輔 and Nohara, Daisuke}, month = {}, note = {In this study, a limit of predictability for the atmosphere is estimated based on analog weather maps in the historical data, and a new type of ensemble forecast assimilation technique is developed in order to improve the forecast skill in the nonlinear dynamical system. The limit of the predictability (denoted as P) is defined as the time taken for the initial difference (E0) of the analog pair to reach the climate noise level which is defined by one standard deviation from the long term mean of the fluctuation in the observed atmosphere. Although a total of 185,547,600 pairs of the weather maps are searched, there are no good analog pairs to investigate the difference growth rate for a sufficiently small E0 of the analog pairs. For this reason, ..., 2003, Includes bibliographical references}, school = {筑波大学, University of Tsukuba}, title = {Estimate of atmospheric predictability and development of prediction model using ensemble forecast assimilation in nonlinear dynamical system}, year = {2004} }