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Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability
http://hdl.handle.net/2241/00143110
http://hdl.handle.net/2241/001431101b05657a-5eab-4e81-8357-0766dd6cb783
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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JC_29-10 (1.7 MB)
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Item type | Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2016-07-07 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Matsueda, M.
× Matsueda, M.× Weisheimer, A.× Palmer, T. N. |
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著者別名 |
松枝, 未遠
× 松枝, 未遠 |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | In earlier work, it was proposed that the reliability of climate change projections, particularly of regional rainfall, could be improved if such projections were calibrated using quantitative measures of reliability obtained by running the same model in seasonal forecast mode. This proposal is tested for fast atmospheric processes (such as clouds and convection) by considering output from versions of the same atmospheric general circulation model run at two different resolutions and forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice. Here output from the high-resolution version of the model is treated as a proxy for truth. The reason for using this approach is simply that the twenty-first-century climate change signal is not yet known and, hence, no climate change projections can be verified using observations. Quantitative assessments of reliability of the low-resolution model, run in seasonal hindcast mode, are used to calibrate climate change time-slice projections made with the same low-resolution model. Results show that the calibrated climate change probabilities are closer to the proxy truth than the uncalibrated probabilities. Given that seasonal forecasts are performed operationally already at several centers around the world, in a seamless forecast system they provide a resource that can be used without cost to help calibrate climate change projections and make them more reliable for users. | |||||
書誌情報 |
Journal of climate 巻 29, 号 10, p. 3831-3840, 発行日 2016-05 |
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ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 0894-8755 | |||||
書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA10683936 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0087.1 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | © Copyright 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (https://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org. | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
値 | publisher | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | American Meteorological Society |